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Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 17 Feb, 2013 4:33 pm
by Lulgrim
This has changed somewhat so I'm replacing the original message. Discussion of Monthly Rumble / generic ranking and skill rating stuff has been going on here.

The rating system is now in place and used for tournament matches (automatically) and any other matches as necessary (submitted as described below). We use the Glicko rating system (the simpler Glicko-1 version), about which you can read below:

There is no automatch, of course, and the rating doesn't update immediately as it requires manual processing. On the other hand, we can expand the available data and statistics a lot (see player profile/history pages below).

What matches will be rated?

  1. Tournament matches (starting from Monthly Rumble #1)
  2. Any 1v1 standard settings* game between registered players where both players agree in the in-game chat to make it a ranked match
  3. Replay must be submitted for a match to be included
* Standard resources, VP victory, 500 VPs

How do I submit matches?

  1. Start a thread* on our "Replays" forum and upload the replay as an attachment OR
  2. Upload the replay to GameReplays, start a thread on our "Replays" forum and post a link to it OR
  3. E-mail the replay (or the link) to me (my username @ this website)
* Include at least Elite version number and player names in the title

Then what?

We get mathematical skill estimate for each player; the system allows keeping a match history that shows all your ranked games with date, opponent, their rating, heroes, map, the scoreboard data, your career hero-specific stats, global hero/faction stats, and all sorts of shit.

See it yourself here:

Skill ratings list: http://www.dawnofwar.info/index.php?page=ratings
Player profile page: http://www.dawnofwar.info/index.php?pag ... &player=90
MoarStats™ extended stats page: http://www.dawnofwar.info/index.php?pag ... stats=moar

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 10 Nov, 2013 6:56 pm
by Lulgrim
The rating system is updated with Monthly Rumble #4 games. I have also added visual win ratio graphs and a skill rating history graph.

Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 10 Nov, 2013 10:31 pm
by Lulgrim
Global stats now have some faction economy thingies: http://www.dawnofwar.info/index.php?pag ... ats=global

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 10 Nov, 2013 11:08 pm
by Bahamut
pretty nice stats. Feed it 1k+ games and you'll be able to actually judge balance by those stats

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Mon 11 Nov, 2013 5:35 am
by Lulgrim
Gonna take a year's Monthly Rumbles (even assuming 100% coverage, as about 25% of replays have been missing in the first four) to hit 1000, so, again, non-tournament "srs" games would give us data faster.

Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Fri 15 Nov, 2013 1:22 pm
by Lulgrim
Player details now show some extra hero-specific numbers (I'm still considering what to put there) when you click on portraits (I'll pretty it up in the future but for now I just put a subtitle saying you can click them).

http://www.dawnofwar.info/index.php?pag ... stats=moar

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Wed 20 Nov, 2013 5:03 am
by Tex
I will start contributing games to this, sounds cool!

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Wed 20 Nov, 2013 6:17 am
by Lulgrim
Updated my links in this thread.

Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Wed 20 Nov, 2013 6:40 am
by Lulgrim
With the Emperor's guidance I have made many litanies to the machine spirit and it has agreed to prepare the chapter's skill ratings automatically.

In other words, as long as I don't just lose the list with names and winners, I can rebuild the whole match history from the beginning with Glicko ratings and RDs, accounting for idle periods, with the figurative push of a button. Or I can make it auto-update as well, which is not relevant quite yet but might be later (more below). At the moment, it allows us to tweak calculation parameters and get the sort of skill estimation best suited to our player population and match frequency.

Thomas has said he can look into the possibility of auto-uploading match results from the game, can't really say how this will end up but at least it's a possibility. I'm sure you agree this would make the auto-updating stats system srs pr0.

If there are players interested in 1v1 skill rating systems and/or statistics (I know fuck all about statistics, really) your input is welcome.

Edit: As it no longer requires much manual work, I am reconsidering COCA games to be included in the match history as well.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Wed 20 Nov, 2013 5:47 pm
by Uncle Milty
This is awesome! All of this.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Thu 21 Nov, 2013 3:08 pm
by Tex
Okay, sorry if its right there in front of me, but I am doing ranked games now and I just need to know what email to send them to or w/e.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Thu 21 Nov, 2013 7:02 pm
by Lulgrim
I should write something about that again... Well, you can 1) post on the Replays forum here and upload attachment, 2) upload on GR and post a link on the Replays forum, or 3) try emailing it to lulgrim @ this website.

Putting reps/links on the forum has the merit of making them available for discussion & casters. If you do, maybe title threads like

[2.2 b7] Mario (Plumber) vs Luigi (Plumber) insane mirror 45 mins omfg1111

or whatever, the version numbers are important anyway.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Thu 21 Nov, 2013 8:44 pm
by Asmon
Lulgrim wrote:[2.2 b7] Mario (Plumber) vs Luigi (Plumber) insane mirror 45 mins omfg1111


This match-up favors Mario so much it's not even funny.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Thu 21 Nov, 2013 10:17 pm
by xerrol nanoha
Asmon wrote:
Lulgrim wrote:[2.2 b7] Mario (Plumber) vs Luigi (Plumber) insane mirror 45 mins omfg1111


This match-up favors Mario so much it's not even funny.

Luigi is sleeper OP, better watch out!

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Fri 22 Nov, 2013 8:03 am
by Lulgrim
For those interested, here is a calculation run of Rumble 1-4 games. Feel free to comment on the RD lability and whether the ratings seem reasonable to you (you'll have to read at least the short description of the system in advance).

https://www.dropbox.com/s/58uuapzc8t8ea ... 0c15.8.txt

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 24 Nov, 2013 9:58 pm
by Lulgrim
The match log now includes games from COCA (the ones that had replays available) and the "ranked weekend" games from Nov 23-24.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/709 ... 24-c15.txt

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 2:04 pm
by Ace of Swords
I was thinking about a little thing, perhaps here on forums could you specify that the rating under the names of the users is for 1v1s?

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 2:21 pm
by Lulgrim
Well we have no other kind...

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 2:23 pm
by Ace of Swords
Yeah I guess, but I was wondering it might look like somekind of forum using good rep rating or something around these lines rather than in-game elo to a user that doesn't know whats going on, that's all, nothing needed really just a clichè thing.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 7:37 pm
by ben1993
How can I get myself added onto the 1v1 ranking table?

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 7:47 pm
by Indrid
Play ranked 1v1 games and submit the replays to the replay forum. Try to seek out other people on the ladder to play. You can use this tool to choose maps, but you don't have to.

Entering the MRT would also help since they are ranked games.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Sun 01 Dec, 2013 10:38 pm
by Templar$Ghost
ben1993 wrote:How can I get myself added onto the 1v1 ranking table?

I would defiantly recommend that you play people on the ladder. I already had four of my games disbanded :cry:

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Mon 02 Dec, 2013 8:03 am
by SirSid
Very cool i will try to use this as much as i can

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Mon 02 Dec, 2013 7:06 pm
by Lulgrim
Additions:

(1) Players must be registered on the website so that we have some sort of fixed ID for them.

(2) I have reordered the ranking based on credible rating (CR in short) which places you according to the lower 67% credible limit (CR = rating - RD) instead of raw, unadjusted rating (which allowed players with high RD silly high on the list). We can change this to the 95% credible limit (2 * RD) if it still seems too easy.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Mon 02 Dec, 2013 7:24 pm
by Ace of Swords
Well, well, this is shaping to be better and better everyday, good job lulgrim.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Tue 03 Dec, 2013 8:16 am
by Lulgrim
Are there more stats I should put on the main rating/ranking list? I thought the win % was a bit redundant, and I ditched the raw ratings, but now it does look a bit empty.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Tue 03 Dec, 2013 10:58 am
by Dark Riku
I actually liked the win percentage.

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Fri 06 Dec, 2013 12:10 pm
by Lulgrim
I will redesign the list as it looks lame anyway.

In other news, I have been thinking about a way to determine best hero. I threw around some formulas but the they seem a bit unsatisfactory... Now I'm considering the skill rating angle, could the strongest hero be the one who has defeated the highest rated (CR) opponent, or the average of 3 highest opponent ratings? Would there be issues in this?

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Fri 06 Dec, 2013 12:19 pm
by Dark Riku
Some examples might help here. It's too abstract for me atm :D
What happens if you beat your highest ranked opponent with more than 1 hero for example?

Re: Elite 1v1 skill rating system

Posted: Fri 06 Dec, 2013 12:55 pm
by Torpid
Or that those opponents just happen to main races that are weak against you - Orks and CS are weak to CL, but both very prominent high level 1v1 heroes.